Production Performance
Rystad Energy estimates oil and condensate production grew 3.2% to 8.9 million bpd in 2024 compared to 2023 figures, supported by a ramp-up in volumes in Guyana, Venezuela and Argentina. This growth was relatively muted compared to the estimated 9% growth witnessed in 2023. The slowdown is largely attributable to the low output in Brazil last year due to maintenance activities – both planned and unplanned -- on some of the country’s major fields.

The offshore deepwater and the shale and tight oil supply segments are key contributors to the region’s oil and condensate production growth. Across the region, production from existing fields is expected to peak this year but production from under-development and discovered fields increases beyond 2025 to offset the decline from more mature producing fields. Therefore, a robust pipeline of projects is key to the future production outlook for the region.

Key projects that were sanctioned in 2024
New projects worth almost $39 billion were sanctioned last year driven by Brazil, Guyana and Suriname in the offshore deep-to-mid-water segment. In May 2024, Petrobras and its partners sanctioned the second phase of the Sepia and Atapu fields, each with a new FPSO unit.

TotalEnergies greenlighted the GranMorgu project in Suriname, where it is a 50-50 partner with APA Corporation. The project will develop the Sapakara and Krabdagu discoveries, which were appraised in 2023 and where a 220,000 bpd leased FPSO is planned to target first oil by 2028. Meanwhile, in Guyana, ExxonMobil took FID on its sixth project in April, the $10.6 billion Whiptail development (Tilapia-Whiptail-Pinktail), which will use the Jaguar FPSO. The government of Trinidad and Tobago is actively trying to bolster declining gas production in the country with some success, and this is evident from the modest sanctioning pipeline in the country. Two important developments were sanctioned in July last year – Manatee and Coconut.

Key projects that started production in 2024
Assets that started production in 2024 have over 2.2 billion boe of resources. Three new FPSOs had their first oil last year: FPSO Maria Quitéria on the Parque das Baleias project, FPSO Marechal Duque de Caxias on the Mero field and FPSO Atlanta on the Atlanta field. In Argentina, French major TotalEnergies’ new development of the Fenix gas field has put into production a new platform on the shallow water of the Tierra del Fuego coast. In Colombia, Ecopetrol brought on the onshore Akacias Phase 2. In Mexico, New Fortress Energy commenced production from the first train of the FLNG project in Altamira and exported its first LNG cargo in early August. Pemex also made significant progress on the Bakte field, having commenced production within just 12 months of discovery.

Investments at highest level since 2014
Robust levels of sanctioning have increased the overall capital spending – inclusive of capital expenditure and exploration expenditure – in Latin America. Oil and gas players spent $72 billion in the region last year, according to Rystad estimates, the highest level since 2014. Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Guyana were the top investment destinations, with these four countries making up more than 80% of total spending last year.

Top M&A deals in the region
Merger and acquisition (M&A) deal value in Latin America topped $16.4 billion in 2024, compared with around $48.5 billion in 2023. The drop in deal value is primarily due to the impact of Chevron's 2023 bid for Hess. Rystad Energy estimates the US independent’s Guyana portfolio to be worth around $42.6 billion. While liquids account for 78% of total hydrocarbon production in the region, there has been a significant shift in M&A activity towards the gas sector. In Argentina, Shell replaced Petronas as a partner alongside YPF in the planned Argentina LNG development. Also, ExxonMobil finally divested its stakes in the unconventional blocks in the country along with partner QatarEnergy.

Offshore Trinidad and Tobago, BPTT (a 70:30 joint venture between BP and Repsol) divested its stake in four mature gas assets and an undeveloped field to Perenco. The largest deal announced in Brazil last year, in terms of deal value, was PRIO’s acquisition of a 40% participating interest in the Peregrino field from Sinochem for $1.92 billion, reinforcing its position as Brazil’s largest independent operator. This was followed by the planned merger between Brazilian players 3R Petroleum and Enauta, at an enterprise value of around $1.4 billion – with the merged entity now renamed Brava Energia.

Key discoveries in 2024

In 2024, drillers in the region unearthed around 1.2 billion boe of resources, more than 20% lower than resources discovered in 2023 and much lower than average historic levels. Guyana continued to lead the region in terms of discovered volumes thanks to ExxonMobil’s continued success on the Stabroek block. Mexico also had some good exploration success.  Drillers found 415 million boe of resources spread across several discoveries, despite the challenges posed by significant companies such as Shell and Petronas scaling back operations following notable exploration failures

Bolivia announced a sizeable gas discovery in July 2024 after the state player YPFB announced the successful completion of its stratigraphic research well, Mayaya Centro-X1 IE, which it said hit a significant hydrocarbon volume equivalent to around 1.7 Tcf of gross unrisked resource. In Suriname, ExxonMobil and partner Petronas found success at Fusaea-1 in May of last year. Also worth highlighting is the Sirius project, formerly known as Uchuva, which was discovered by Ecopetrol and Petrobras in 2022. The drilling of the Sirius-2 well last year confirmed 6 Tcf of natural gas resources in place and could be transformational for Colombia’s gas supply in the future. Rystad Energy estimates the recoverable resources to be more than 3.5tcf of gas.

Looking Ahead

Offshore deepwater is expected to drive sanctioning activity in the region in the coming years, which is the key to enhancing future production. This sector will also drive an increase in overall investments. The future phases of the Stabroek Block in Guyana, the Buzios development in Brazil and continued investments in Argentina’s Neuquen Basin will be key drivers of regional investment in coming years. 

Authors: 

Flavio Menten

Analyst, Upstream Research
flavio.menten@rystadenergy.com

Radhika Bansal

Vice President, Upstream Research
radhika.bansal@rystadenergy.com

(The data and/or forecasts in this column are Rystad Energy's, and the opinions are of the authors.)