With the midway point of 2024 right around the corner, there’s no shortage of themes and data points to consider as we take the pulse of energy markets and monitor the trajectory of the energy transition so far this year. The unsettling backdrop is one of severely heightened geopolitical tensions – from military conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to polarized elections around the globe.

What has surprised me thus far is how quickly the European power sector has become greener. Fossil fuel’s share of generation is down from 32% in 2022 to 22% so far in 2024, and emissions are down by 33% since 2022. Average power prices this year have been 30% below fossil fuel generation costs. This shows that coal and gas have struggled to be competitive in the European power mix, despite the fact that coal and gas prices are back at normal low levels after the price surge in 2022. Most of Europe’s population has in fact experienced an average of more than one hour per day with negative prices so far in 2024. This is a clear indication of a strong business case for battery storage, which is indeed growing very quickly in Europe as we speak. 

Elections were always going to be a hot topic for the energy industry in 2024, with voters going to the polls in numerous big-time energy-producing and consuming nations. India, Mexico and the European Union have recently completed their election cycles, with Iran, the United Kingdom and Venezuela soon to follow suit. Our assessment is that these elections do not represent a threat to the pace of the energy transition. In Mexico, for instance, newly elected president Claudia Scheinbaum has explicitly promoted policies leading to a quicker green shift. 

In a proverbial double-header this week, we will combine our popular Rystad Talks Energy and Rystad Talks Industry webinars into a two-part, two-hour session, where several of our most prominent thought leaders will guide you through the energy landscape. Topics will include a high-level analysis of oil trading and downstream markets in the wake of OPEC’s extension of production cuts, a review of the short-term outlook for gas and LNG, and an assessment of supply chain challenges amid continued inflation and high interest rates. We will then pivot to the cleantech sector for the latest trends within CCUS, hydrogen, solar, wind, biofuels and batteries, capped off with an update on European industrial decarbonization progress.

I welcome you to join us on Thursday 20 June for a special mid-year edition of Rystad Talks. This 2-hour event will feature the latest updates on key energy markets, with a focus on oil, gas, and LNG within the global market and the energy transition. We will discuss industries' pursuit of low-carbon solutions and their implications for 2024.