When reflecting on the energy transition, it’s crucial to consider where the world might have been if technological progress had stalled. If we had the same emission intensities as in the 1960s, annual emissions would have skyrocketed to 75 gigatonnes by now, and we’d already be contending with global warming at 1.7°C. Instead, we stand at 39 Gt – still high, but thanks to technological advancements in energy efficiency, solar PV, batteries, and electric vehicles – we’ve managed to avert some 36 Gt of emissions.​

This offers a glimpse of what’s possible as we look ahead. If current trends continue linearly, net-zero emissions could be within reach by 2084, limiting warming to 1.9°C. But history has shown that breakthrough technologies rarely advance linearly. Instead, they tend to follow an S-curve, accelerating as innovations disrupt industries. If clean energy follows this path, we could reach net-zero by 2058 and limit warming to 1.6°C. Moreover, further reductions in methane might shave off another 0.1°C to 0.2°C. There are, of course, other possible pathways, including the 2.2°C scenario, where clean technology deployment slows, emissions reductions taper, and the urgency of decarbonization fades.

Rystad Energy has just put the finishing touches to a comprehensive analysis – The Global Energy Scenarios 2024 Report – wherein our experts take the pulse of the energy transition and outline three key tasks essential for achieving deep decarbonization. The first task, cleaning up the power sector is paramount, with solar, wind, and battery technologies poised to contribute to 40% of the emissions reductions needed by 2050. The second challenge, electrification of road transport, industries, and buildings holds a further 40% of CO2 reduction potential, as the adoption of electric vehicles and advancements in industrial efficiency accelerate. The third task, addressing residual emissions through carbon capture, utilization and storage, along with hydrogen and bioenergy, could provide the additional 20 % reduction needed.

I welcome you to join us for a thought-provoking session on Thursday 31 October, as we present the latest edition of Rystad Talks Energy, dedicated entirely to the global energy system and the decarbonization pathways that lie ahead. For fresh angles and deeper insights into this vital topic, I will be joined by my colleagues Jo Husebye, Head of Energy Systems, Jon Ødegård Hansen, Head of Energy Scenarios, and Lars Nitter Havro, Head of Energy Macro.