Oil Trading Signals
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1
US vote, OPEC+ cuts, potential hurricane to upstage EIA stocks report
Highlights:
Strong commercial crude oil stock build expected for the week ended 1 November, but stocks will remain well below the five-year average.
Cushing crude oil inventory remains lower than historical figures, but pressure could mount as pipelines that ship Midland crude oil to the US Gulf Coast are operating near capacity.
US gasoline cracks should begin to strengthen on low stocks. A stronger differential between NYH and the US Gulf Coast is expected, while European arbitrage will open as US gasoline cracks strengthen....
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2
Russia: Refinery runs are at 2.5-year low and still below expectations
Key highlights:
Refinery runs dynamics in Russia continue to be below expectations, with no significant recovery in the week of 17-23 October. We have revised down our Base Case for refinery runs for October by 40,000 bpd to 5.13 million bpd, the lowest monthly level since April 2022.
Based on preliminary estimates, the four-week average of Russian crude oil exports by sea (excluding CPC Blend and KEBCO) is staying at high levels of around 3.4-3.5 million bpd, while products exports by sea is at a low level of around 2.0 million bpd...
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3
India's medium-sour balance will shift with reduction in Urals imports
Highlights:
India's crude deficit grew by around 385,000 barrels per day in October due to increased refinery runs
Middle Eastern medium and heavy sour grades will be prioritized to compensate for the Russian shortfall
Refining margins are at risk of decline with the increase in refinery runs and regional product demand weakness...
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4
Israel’s restraint, gloomy US stocks report cause crude oil sell-off
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Brent crude oil and New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas Intermediate (NYMEX WTI) prices for the December contract began a sell-off on 28 October as Israel showed restraint in its retaliatory attacks over the weekend on Iran. For almost a month the world had anticipated that an Israeli response to Iran’s 1 October ballistic missile attack could possibly inflame tensions in the Middle East and cause an immediate retaliation by Iran....
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5
China Update: Ripple effects one month after Yulong’s start-up
One month after the Yulong refinery started the first of its two trains of crude distillation units (CDU) since 25 September, the market has gone through shifts and rebalances to digest the additional volumes in both crude and product levels in a market characterized by excess supply. The result is a wave of ripple effects spreading through the Chinese market...
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