Oil Trading Signals

Agency alert: OPEC’s oil-demand forecast falls for fifth month in a row

"Highlights:

Nigeria’s crude surplus to narrow by a further 93,000 bpd in 1H25 due to stronger domestic demand from restart of Port Harcourt and the ramp up of Dangote refinery.

Light and medium sweet grades in Nigeria key to help meet rising domestic demand, differential prices are expected to support from current level.

Europe will need to explore alternative markets as Nigeria’s gasoline imports slide. The region could turn to WTI crude for its refining needs and raise gasoline exports to the US..."

Sign up to receive the full version in the future. (You will receive a selection of signals directly in your mailbox.)

Oil trading insight: China unlikely to impose retaliatory tariffs on US propane

"The impending return of US President-elect Donald Trump to the White House in January has rattled the global commodities market, with key players expecting tariffs to be slapped on several commodity variants from crude oil to olefins. There is now some uncertainty on how mainland China – another key commodities player – will react to such tariffs if they are indeed imposed. Retaliatory tariffs from China could be on the cards and could surface in the market soon, especially if Trump’s threat of a 60% tariff on Chinese imports comes to fruition. However, some commodity variants appear to be more buffered from Chinese retaliation than others. Propane is unlikely to take a big hit, as China’s dependence on US propane imports has risen substantially since 2017. While the risks for ethane in the US and China appear to be balanced at this point, as China is now the largest importer of ethane from the US, adverse effects appear to be more pronounced for polyethylene amid a more diversified supplier base..."

Sign up to receive the full version in the future. (You will receive a selection of signals directly in your mailbox.)

China update: Crude purchases begin to return

"Key takeaways:

China crude imports likely to rise in November and December, triggered by weakness in the oil price from September.

Additional quotas awarded to independent refiners will support more buying of Iranian crudes from Malaysian inventories.

Recovering refinery margins are lending increasing support to China’s crude purchasing power, with both gasoline and diesel cracks strengthening from last month.

Stronger margins may support crude buying for deliveries in February after a muted January. With rising bargaining power, China is weighing crude options from Middle East, Russia, Iran, Brazil, and West Africa..."

Sign up to receive the full version in the future. (You will receive a selection of signals directly in your mailbox.)

US crude oil stocks set for another bullish draw, little support for prices

"Highlights:

• A 1.8-million-barrel commercial crude oil stock draw is expected for the week ended 29 November. This is bullish for WTI prices, but global geopolitics are outweighing US domestic fundamentals to keep global benchmark prices weak.

• US Gulf Coast gasoline cracks have weakened further but stock draws expected this week should support stronger cracks, while NYH cracks should also see some support as stocks remain low and pipeline systems to receive domestic transfers are at capacity.

• Some downside pressure on US Gulf Coast cracks is expected this week on regional stock builds, while NYH diesel prices will remain tied to US Gulf Coast prices through pipeline location differentials..."

Sign up to receive the full version in the future. (You will receive a selection of signals directly in your mailbox.)

Nigeria’s crude surplus to narrow further amid restart of Port Harcourt

"Highlights:

Nigeria’s crude surplus to narrow by a further 93,000 bpd in 1H25 due to stronger domestic demand from restart of Port Harcourt and the ramp up of Dangote refinery.

Light and medium sweet grades in Nigeria key to help meet rising domestic demand, differential prices are expected to support from current level.

Europe will need to explore alternative markets as Nigeria’s gasoline imports slide. The region could turn to WTI crude for its refining needs and raise gasoline exports to the US..."

Sign up to receive the full version in the future. (You will receive a selection of signals directly in your mailbox.)