The good news is our research indicates that we are close to a global peak in emissions, and looking on a per capita basis emissions have plateaued and are set to decline, however, the US needs to do better in achieving emissions reduction, particularly to reach stated goals for the power and transportation sectors. We see electrification as the key driver to decarbonizing transport, buildings, and the industrial sector.

The US election, although pivotal, is unlikely to highly impact the trajectory of clean energy projects, since most projects and jobs created are in red states. Texas recently surpassed California in cumulative solar PV installations, illustrating the industry's bipartisanship. Building a US Battery Supply Chain is still a focus and a bipartisan issue.

One key hurdle for renewables through 2030 will be the interconnection queue. There is a backlog of projects with more than twice the size of the US' current generating capacity. Until regulatory structures change, renewable projects will not connect to the grid at the pace we need them to. US renewable expenditures will top $200B by 2030 and will continue increasing their share of the power mix to meet power demand. 

When it comes to hydrogen, we need clear guidance around 45v credits which will help offset the risk for developers and get projects off the ground.   SAF is rapidly increasing in the US, however, we need more low-cost feedstock in order to make this sustainable. Hydrogen can be used for SAF, but scale is required to make it economically viable.

On the battery front, US gigafactory battery production is forecasted to exceed domestic battery demand going into 2030 and Gigafactories will still need to import lithium to keep up with their planned production.  Given the disconnect between gigafactory production and domestic demand, we will either see US made batteries being exported or gigafactories shutting down.

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